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Autumn Budget 2024: an economic and political gamble

The first Budget of a new government is always a big moment a chance to set out a new direction. Rachel Reeves did just that at her first fiscal event embarking on an economic and political gamble that what Britain wants and needs is a much larger state.

Taxes borrowing and government spending all increased markedly. By the reckoning of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) the government’s independent watchdog and forecaster the total package was the largest fiscal loosening excluding the emergency response to the pandemic in 2020 in decades. And whilst it may seem strange to be writing in terms of a fiscal loosening after the largest set of tax rises since the early 1990s those tax rises were dwarfed by even larger increases in current and capital spending.

The tax changes though remain substantial. The £36bn or so of annual...

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