John Hawksworth says the Budget is modestly positive for economic growth up to 2015 but with pain to come.
At the time of last year’s Budget in March 2012 the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was expecting UK GDP growth to be around 2.3% in the 2013/14 financial year picking up to around 3% on average over the following three years. Even at the time this looked relatively optimistic and subsequent events – notably renewed problems in the Eurozone that have hit UK exports and business confidence – have caused the OBR to reduce its growth forecasts significantly first in the Autumn Statement and now again in the 2013 Budget (as can be seen by comparing the first two rows of the table).
The OBR’s...
