It is easy to find reasons to be gloomy about the prospects for 2012. But there are some silver linings among the clouds. It is unlikely that the world will go back into recession. The prospect for Britain’s economy is fairly flat until the middle of the year, followed by a modest upturn in the second half of 2012. Falling inflation should ensure the Bank rate remains at 0.5% throughout 2012. The euro zone represents easily the biggest risk to the British economy but if disaster there can be avoided the year may not be as bad as some fear.
