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The public finances are on the mend, but the Treasury’s still worried

The budget deficit is undershooting official forecasts, suggesting that the public finances are on the mend. But the chancellor is not ready to declare victory yet, writes David Smith.

In music the phenomenon of the ‘difficult second album’ is well known. After a big success with its first release a breakthrough act often finds it hard to follow through with the next recording. Its equivalent as far as the public finances are concerned is the ‘difficult second year’ after a shock to the economy.

During the financial crisis which had its biggest economic impact during the 2008/09 fiscal year it was easy to think that the worst was then over. In fact while public sector net borrowing was large that year – £117.3bn – it was exceeded in the following year 2009/10 to what was then a record £157.7bn.

During this second major...

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