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Budget analysis – Economy

Review of budget proposals by John Hawksworth

Chancellor Alistair Darling delivered his third Budget in somewhat better economic conditions than his second Budget a year ago. The global financial crisis has eased and there are tentative signs of an economy recovery in the UK. Mr Darling was also able to revise down his borrowing forecasts for the first time since he became Chancellor.

However the estimated budget deficit for 2009/10 is still at peacetime record levels for the UK of 11.8% of GDP and is only projected to fall gradually to around 4% of GDP by 2014/15. This is despite the Treasury's relatively bullish medium-term growth forecasts and fiscal tightening already planned of around £57 billion per annum at today's values by 2014/15. So the fiscal situation remains very difficult and the Chancellor had little room for manoeuvre in the Budget.

Below we review and assess the new...

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