SPEED READ The scale and ambition of the fiscal reduction plan means that the 22 June Budget should earn its place in the history books alongside Geoffrey Howe’s famously tough Budget in March 1981. Just as economic historians still debate the merits of that Budget, so George Osborne’s Emergency Budget will probably divide opinion for years to come. Its ultimate success will depend on two uncertain factors. First, will the contraction of the public sector encourage compensating growth in the private sector, or could it provoke a lapse back into recession? Secondly, will the squeeze on public spending lead to redesigned, revitalised public services, or to a tatty, under-performing version of the services currently provided? We are cautiously optimistic on the first question. The second is in the hands of people working in the public sector to determine.
