A recent report from Oxford Economics warns of Labour’s proposed non-dom changes, citing 98% of remittance basis users surveyed indicated they would emigrate from the UK sooner if the reforms were implemented and a tax loss of £1bn. The survey also reports that 60% of advisers expect more than 40% of their clients to leave the UK within two years of implementation.
The report considers the fiscal impact of the reforms using different scenarios that employ different assumptions that factors in the increase in tax contributions on a per non-dom basis and a longer emigration response and the impact of the reforms to both the FIG and IHT on immigration and emigration rates.
The report concedes that this behavioural response is highly uncertain but expects it to be significantly larger than induced by previous reforms to the non-dom tax code in 2017.
However, Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates said: ‘The report says nothing about how the survey was conducted and whether there was any attempt to make it representative. There is no sign of any statistical analysis. The results are therefore statistically meaningless.’
‘The survey will also have suffered from a significant “preference signal” effect – the people surveyed will have known the use to which the survey would be put, and so have an incentive to provide a dramatic answer’, he added.
A recent report from Oxford Economics warns of Labour’s proposed non-dom changes, citing 98% of remittance basis users surveyed indicated they would emigrate from the UK sooner if the reforms were implemented and a tax loss of £1bn. The survey also reports that 60% of advisers expect more than 40% of their clients to leave the UK within two years of implementation.
The report considers the fiscal impact of the reforms using different scenarios that employ different assumptions that factors in the increase in tax contributions on a per non-dom basis and a longer emigration response and the impact of the reforms to both the FIG and IHT on immigration and emigration rates.
The report concedes that this behavioural response is highly uncertain but expects it to be significantly larger than induced by previous reforms to the non-dom tax code in 2017.
However, Dan Neidle of Tax Policy Associates said: ‘The report says nothing about how the survey was conducted and whether there was any attempt to make it representative. There is no sign of any statistical analysis. The results are therefore statistically meaningless.’
‘The survey will also have suffered from a significant “preference signal” effect – the people surveyed will have known the use to which the survey would be put, and so have an incentive to provide a dramatic answer’, he added.
