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Tax increases in Scotland could have led to falling revenue, says IFS

Analysis published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests that increases in the top rate of Scottish income tax may have led to reduced revenues for the Scottish Government. The top rate of tax is set at 48% in 2024/25 and applies to taxable income over £125 140. The Scottish Government is due to publish its Budget on 4 December 2024 and the economic impact of tax policy will come into sharp focus particularly given the direction of travel in recent years with income tax rates and thresholds diverging from those that apply to taxpayers across the rest of the UK.

Based on Scottish Fiscal Commission assumptions of behavioural responses to changes in tax rates the analysis suggests that about half of the revenue that otherwise would be raised by the ‘advanced’ 45% rate and around 85% of revenue that otherwise would be...

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