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Officials advise, Ministers decide

What Budget advice is the Chancellor likely to receive from the Permanent Secretary at the Treasury? We asked former Permanent Secretary Lord Macpherson for his thoughts.

The first Budget of a parliament provides a huge opportunity to any new Chancellor of the Exchequer the more so when there is a change of government. This is their chance to ‘open the books’ blame their predecessor and to harness the Treasury at its strongest. It’s the time to raise taxes and cut spending.

It’s no coincidence that in his first Budget in 1974 Denis Healey raised the basic rate of income tax from 30% to 33%. Geoffrey Howe raised the standard rate of VAT from 8% to 15% in his first Budget in 1979 and George Osborne followed suit in 2010 raising it further from 17½% to 20%.

But the first Budget also carries risks. Go too far and...

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